TP1 hit rate is one of the most misunderstood performance metrics in trading. It can be useful, but only if you understand exactly what it measures.
What is TP1?
TP1 means Take Profit 1: the first predefined target in a trade. If price reaches that level, the setup has achieved its first target. Depending on the strategy, a trader might take partial profit there, move the stop-loss, hold the full position or manage the trade in another way.
TP1 hit rate is not the same as win rate
A trade can hit TP1 and later finish at break-even or even at a loss depending on how the position is managed. That means a high TP1 hit rate does not automatically mean the complete trade was profitable.
This distinction matters when performance data is presented. A transparent performance dashboard should separate target hit rates from the actual trade outcome wherever possible.
Why traders still look at TP1
TP1 can tell you something about how often a setup produces an initial move in the expected direction. For traders who scale out at the first target, this may be particularly relevant.
But the metric should be used together with other information such as total R, average R per trade, full win rate, break-even frequency, losses and sample size.
Example
Imagine an indicator shows that TP1 was reached in 75% of a specific historical sample. That does not mean 75% of the trades were full winners. Some of those trades could later return to break-even, while others may continue to TP2 or TP3.
The right question is not only, “How often did TP1 get hit?” It is also, “What happened to the complete trade after that?”
How NGF presents target data
For the NGF S&P 500 and NGF Nasdaq systems, the historical dashboard can display TP1, TP2 and TP3 hit rates alongside trade outcomes, total R and average R. In those systems, the stated win rule should always be shown together with the performance statistics.
NGF Gold uses a different outcome model. It records the complete result of the trade rather than automatically treating TP1 followed by break-even as a full win.
Sample size matters
A percentage based on a small number of trades can change dramatically after only a few new outcomes. That is why timeframe and number of trades should always be shown next to a percentage.
At NGF, performance statistics are presented as displayed historical performance snapshots for the stated timeframe and sample.
Displayed results are historical indicator data for the stated timeframe and sample. They are not a guarantee of future performance. Trading involves risk, and users remain responsible for all trading and risk-management decisions.